2012 Election

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Post about the 2012 Election in this thread.

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From the Land of the Strange Limbaugh Agrees w/ Attack Ad ?

Limbaugh: Romney Spokeswoman Touts Romneycare In Response To Attack Ad

I personally think Limbaugh is a lunatic but I also find this interesting in a perverse way! Although I don't like the ad and think it is a huge stretch to say Romney killed this woman, I also think that some peple will think that all of this was a contributing factor to her health deteriorating--her depression about her husband being laid off and maybe financial strains, etc. Romney should respond and clarify that this is ridiculous on the face of it rather than just saying if she lived in MA she would have had health ins. (if that is an accurate account of the campaign's response)

RUSH: So wait a minute, you’re telling me that you get a campaign person on from the Romney campaign to respond to an allegation that your candidate is responsible for a woman’s death, and your answer is, she woulda had health insurance if she’d lived in Massachusetts? What? I don’t know the people at the Romney campaign, but I’m gonna tell you, your candidate is accused of killing a woman… this isn’t about health insurance. They’re out there saying that your guy killed this woman, and your answer is, “Well, she’d-a had health insurance if she lived in Massachusetts”?

From the sound of this, they don’t know, at the Romney campaign, what the purpose of this ad was and how it took root. They apparently don’t know that the Obama campaign ran an ad accusing Romney of murder, essentially. Stephanie Cutter is backing it up. The woman did die. Romney got rich. He closed the plant. Husband lost the job. Wife got sick and died. Romney made out like a bandit...

[Admin]

Aug 9, 2012 13:25:32 GMT -5 Admin said:

From the Land of the Strange Limbaugh Agrees w/ Attack Ad ?

Limbaugh: Romney Spokeswoman Touts Romneycare In Response To Attack Ad

I personally think Limbaugh is a lunatic but I also find this interesting in a perverse way! Although I don't like the ad and think it is a huge stretch to say Romney killed this woman, I also think that some peple will think that all of this was a contributing factor to her health deteriorating--her depression about her husband being laid off and maybe financial strains, etc. Romney should respond and clarify that this is ridiculous on the face of it rather than just saying if she lived in MA she would have had health ins. (if that is an accurate account of the campaign's response)

RUSH: So wait a minute, you’re telling me that you get a campaign person on from the Romney campaign to respond to an allegation that your candidate is responsible for a woman’s death, and your answer is, she woulda had health insurance if she’d lived in Massachusetts? What? I don’t know the people at the Romney campaign, but I’m gonna tell you, your candidate is accused of killing a woman… this isn’t about health insurance. They’re out there saying that your guy killed this woman, and your answer is, “Well, she’d-a had health insurance if she lived in Massachusetts”?

From the sound of this, they don’t know, at the Romney campaign, what the purpose of this ad was and how it took root. They apparently don’t know that the Obama campaign ran an ad accusing Romney of murder, essentially. Stephanie Cutter is backing it up. The woman did die. Romney got rich. He closed the plant. Husband lost the job. Wife got sick and died. Romney made out like a bandit...

[Admin]

There are some big IF's in here and the first one of 75% going for Romney (undecideds) is highly unlikely.

Electoral College Scenarios (possible outcomes)

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When 75% of undecided voters swing towards Romney come election day, Romney wins the election with 311 electoral votes to Obama’s 227. This model would deliver Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire to Romney. I did not include the southern states or Missouri since my “trend” model also predicts Romney victories there.

But, a totally different electoral scenario develops when the number is dropped to 67% of undecided voters pulling the lever for Romney. In that case, the outcome is Obama with 322 electoral votes to Romney’s 216. In this scenario, Obama would not only keep Nevada, Colorado, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but he would also win Florida and Virginia. Romney would keep both Iowa and New Hampshire. Neither of those states are particularly rich in electoral votes, but Obama’s states in this scenario are the jewels of the battleground states and an exclamation point on his reelection.

The final scenario I looked at was what if the undecided voters broke for the challenger against an incumbent based on the most recent example in 2004 when John Kerry took on George W. Bush. According to CNN exit poll data, undecided voters who voted for Kerry, the challenger, did so at a rate of about 54%. That is considerably below the 75% postulated by Morris. In that case, the electoral outcome would come out as my original “trend analysis” predicts- Obama winning 290-248.

Obviously, this is based on polling data three months out from the general election and yes, that is the only “poll” that counts. It may very well turn out, although not likely, that all undecided voters will vote for Romney. In that case, then it would spell an unmitigated electoral disaster and repudiation of Barack Obama. Well, we can dream. Of course, we have not had any conventions yet nor have we had any debates. We do not even know who Mitt Romney’s running mate is yet. So, a lot can change between now and any point in the future. And speaking of Romney’s running mate, it cannot be overemphasized that his selection will not necessarily be the deciding factor with respect to any battleground state. Numerous studies have proven that the selection of a Vice Presidential running mate has no effect on swinging that selection’s home state into their camp. Hence, choosing a Rob Portman will likely have no effect on delivering Ohio to Romney, nor will McDonnell assure a victory in Virginia or Rubio a victory in Florida. That is why I am steadfast in my belief that Romney will look beyond that consideration and select Senator John Thune of South Dakota.

[Admin]

This is an excellent resource from battleground watch

There is some funky (funny?) stuff in there too.

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The Race Is Romney’s to Win — Today’s Must Read

August 9, 2012 – 1:05 am


I missed this yesterday, so today’s must read is 24 hours old, but everything in it is spot on. Previously I blogged that Jay Cost is a regular “must read” but just like my previous post, I guess since I read him and blog him, you’re more efficient by just reading me (go you!). Yesterday Jay drilled down on something careful readers have intuitively picked up on –despite polls consistently showing President Obama with a slight lead, the November election seems like Mitt Romney’s for the taking (he just needs to take it!):


By Election Day, there will be two stories about Mitt Romney. The one, which we have already heard from Team Obama, portrays Romney as a heartless capitalist. The other is a case still to be made, from Team Romney, that he is a pragmatic problem solver who understands the private economy and can fix it. If a majority of voters think that Romney’s story is closer to the truth than Obama’s, then Mitt Romney will be elected the 45th President of the United States.

State of the race


Obama’s polling right now suggests that he has only locked down the core Democratic vote; what’s more, those not currently in his voting coalition tend to disapprove of his job as president. Indeed, the Gallup job approval poll finds him with just 31 percent support from “pure” independents, i.e. those with no party affiliation whatsoever. It is extraordinarily difficult for incumbent presidents to win the votes of people who disapprove of the job they are doing.

Obama stuck in the high 40s for a reason


For the last two months, President Obama has bounced around between 46 and 48 percent of the vote in the national polls, as well as most averages of the state polls. Impressive? Hardly. Forty-six to 48 percent is really just the core Democratic coalition, which every Democrat has held for the past quarter century. Every [Presidential election] cycle since [1988] the Democrats have enjoyed a floor of about 46 percent of the vote, built around roughly 90 percent of Democratic support, 40 percent of independent support, and 10 percent of Republican support. If you look carefully at the national horserace polls, you will notice that these are the only people supporting Obama over Romney, more or less. And if you look carefully at the presidential job approval polls, you will notice that these are also the only people approving of his job performance, more or less.

If Obama can’t move voters for him, he must move voters away from Romney


It is difficult to overcome the hurdle that Obama faces – to win voters who think you’ve done a bad job as president – but not impossible… Lyndon Johnson managed the same in 1964, as he made the Goldwater-Miller ticket out to be a threat to humanity itself. Obama is basically running this campaign. If LBJ made Goldwater a threat to western civilization, Obama is trying to make Romney into a corporate raider who will bring about a new feudalism.

Where does this leave Romney


This points to Romney’s challenge, and it is a significant one. Obviously, he needs to remind swing voters of all the things about the Obama tenure that they do not like, but he also must counter Obama’s negative campaign. He cannot allow himself to be tagged as a capitalist pig whose only goal is personal enrichment. Instead, he must aggressively and constantly push the idea that he is a decent, public-spirited man whose background is precisely what this country needs.

How to make the sale

1.Bold vice presidential selection: A vibrant, articulate conservative who can make the positive case for a change
2.Tampa convention: Dedicate much more effort to promoting Romney as the best leader to fix our problems [not just bash Obama]
3.Ad wars and the fall debates: Romney must not focus singularly on the case against Obama – the president has made that himself over three years of bad governance – but dedicate substantial effort to making the case for himself

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[foxyladi14]

I am waiting to see who Mitt chooses as VP.

[Admin]

Aug 10, 2012 8:17:25 GMT -5 foxyladi14 said:

I am waiting to see who Mitt chooses as VP.

It could make the election very interesting. The things I've read in the last 24hrs. say it's down to Pawlenty, Ryan and the rep. from Ohio (forget his name). Of the 3, I'd prefer Pawlenty if I were voting for Romney.

[Admin]

www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/08/09/romney_vp_will_be_someone_with_a_vision_for_the_country.html

"I don't think I have anything for you on the VP running mate except I certainly expect to have a person that has a strength of character. A vision for the country, that, that adds something to the political discourse about the direction of the country. I mean I happen to believe this is a defining election for America; that we're gonna be voting for what kind of American we're gonna have," Mitt Romney said in an interview with NBC News.

It will be interesting to see if his pick picks up his campaign. Right now it isn't going anywhere.

[Admin]

Shouldn't Romney Be Ahead by Now?

What do you think trying to be as objective as possible? I think he should be closer and if his numbers don't get closer to 50%, it doesn't look good.

Shouldn’t Romney be wiping the floor with Obama? By the measurements Romney uses again and again in his speeches — prolonged high unemployment, a failed economy and the unpopularity of “Obamacare” — shouldn’t Americans be rallying around Romney by a significant majority by now?

[Admin]

A Historical Perspective on American Roads

Just over a century ago, steamships, canals, railroads, and the telegraph were up and running. They were the technological marvels of the 19th century-- setting the stage for the 20th century. Yet the invention that would spark a revolution in transportation was a simple two-wheeler. The bicycle. Its popularity in the 1880s and 1890s spurred interest in the nation's roads.

On October 3, 1893, General Roy Stone, a Civil War hero and good roads advocate, was appointed Special Agent in charge of the new Office of Road Inquiry (ORI) within the Department of Agriculture. With a budget of $10,000, ORI promoted new rural road development to serve the wagons, coaches, and bicycles on America's dirt roads.

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In 1908, Henry Ford introduced his low-priced, highly efficient Model T. Its widespread popularity created pressure for the federal government to become more directly involved in road development. With rural interests adding to the battle cry of "Get the farmers out of the mud!" Congress passed the Federal- Aid Road Act of 1916. It created the Federal-Aid Highway Program under which funds were made available on a continuous basis to state highway agencies to assist in road improvements. But before the program could get off the ground, the United States entered World War I.

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[Admin]

Presidents don't affect the economy for the most part. About the only thing some presidents could do is inspire confidence in the hopes of stimulating spending through optimism. But when a candidate says something positive, generally they are blasted for being out of touch! But don't let Obama bashers and Romney supporters stand in the way of this fact. This is one of the reasons I'm not voting for Romney because I don't think he can make much of a difference except perhaps in hurting the middle class (which is where most of us are).

Does the president actually influence the economy?

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Dubner: Look, personally, I have no horse in any race -- I dislike both political parties about equally. But here's the thing: We're heading into a presidential campaign now that is likely to focus on the economy, and rightly so. And I'm here to tell you and your listeners that of all the areas in which the president's influence is overrated, the economy is probably No. 1.

I'd like you here to listen to Austan Goolsbee, who's a former chairman of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers.

Austan Goolsbee: I think the world vests too much power -- certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general -- for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.
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And...from a separate article...

The President's Effect on the Economy: Less than you'd think...

The two most significant ways that a President can affect the economy is through taxes and government spending. Although, most of that power resides with Congress and the President merely lends a signature at the end of the process to make the proposal law. The President can and will state his opinion on such matters, but ultimate responsibility for fiscal policy is Congress’ alone. Thus, while the President has enormous influence over fiscal policy, Congress is the ultimate authority.

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[Admin]

From Real Clear Politics

[Admin]

If it is Ryan, that will sink his ship I believe. Even some republicans don't want to be associated with Ryan's budget plan.

Romney to Announce VP Pick Saturday: Signs Point to Paul Ryan

BOSTON — Mitt Romney will make the long-awaited announcement Saturday of his running mate in the presidential race, with signs pointing to Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan as the pick

The Washington Post was not able to immediately confirm that Ryan was the definite choice, but a knowledgeable Republican said all indications were that the seven-term congressman would be the vice-presidential nominee. One clue was the venue chosen for the announcement, the USS Wisconsin in Norfolk, Va.

Also from another article:

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Another risk with Ryanis the congressman's record of affection for the controversial libertarian writer Ayn Rand.

The late Rand, who was born Alisa Zinov'yevna Rosenbaum to Jewish parents in St. Petersburg, Russia, espoused a philosophy known as Objectivism, which celebrated self-interest and laissez faire capitalism and opposed altruism.

Ryan had a long record of praise for Rand and her influence on him, though earlier this year he attempted to distance himself from her ideas. He dismissed as an “urban legend” the notion that he was an Ayn Rand devotee: “I reject her philosophy,” which he described as “atheist” and “completely antithetical to mine.”
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NBC News, citing multiple sources, reported early Saturday that Ryan, the chairman of the House Budget Committee and the architect of the Republican budget blueprint, would be Romney’s running mate.

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[Admin]

It's official. Romney's VP pick is Paul Ryan, who has less experience than Sarah Palin did!

Great pick Mitt! It will assure you 4 more years of being a rich civilian.

How Ryan will help create jobs (Oops! maybe not)

Paul Ryan is a career Washington D.C. insider. A Republican member of the U.S. House of Representatives, he is the architect of the Republican “Ryan Budget.” This extreme plan would turn Medicare into a voucher program, increasing seniors’ costs by up to $6,350 per year. It would also slash education and clean energy funding, along with other middle-class investments critical to economic growth—while raising taxes on millions of middle-class families to pay for tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires.

According to Harvard economist Jeffrey Liebman, based on Mitt Romney’s own projections on the impact of deep spending cuts on the economy, [glow=red,2,300]Paul Ryan’s budget plan could cost the U.S. more than 1 million jobs[/glow].

[Admin]

[b[Obama's budget.[/b][/url]

Romney supporters can post his budget if they like.


Mitt Romney: Paul Ryan Budget Is Not His, Candidate 'Putting Together His Own'

Within minutes of tapping Paul Ryan as his vice presidential nominee, presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney was distancing himself from the congressman's controversial budget, which includes steep cuts to government programs and changing Medicare into a voucher-like program.

The Romney campaign sent out talking points on Saturday that made the case that he was his own man on matters of Medicare and Social Security and that he wouldn't be tied to a document he insisted he'd sign into law and once called "marvelous."
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More flip flopping and reasons to not know what the heck Romney stands for. Why the heck did he tap this guy if he is now walking back his "marvelous" comment? Their website calls them "The Comeback Team". I think it should be the "Walk Back Team"! ;D "I was for the Ryan budget before I was against it!"